B4B

Matt Sisson sits down with Rob Neyer, to discuss baseball, and Neyer’s latest book: Big Book of Baseball Legends (The Truth, the Lies, and Everything Else)

Here are some of my favorite parts:

(Q) What record in baseball history would you say is the most unlikely to be broken?

(RN) Anything related to starting pitchers’ workloads: starts, innings, complete games, wins, losses, etc.

These statistics are so era-dependent, that you’d have to imagine some kind of adjustment made–in the official record books–to give the 21st century major leaguers a chance.

(Q) First word or words that come to mind when you think of these players:

Q Ted Williams

(RN) Hitter

Q Joe DiMaggio

(RN) Graceful

Q Bert Blyleven

(RN) Terribly, terribly unappreciated

Q Derek Jeter

(RN) Terribly, terribly overrated … but still great

Q Barry Zito

(RN) Toast

Q David Ortiz

(RN) Best free agent signing, ever

We definitely agree on Zito. And the David Ortiz signing back in 2003 (1 year 1.25 million), is the single biggest reason the Red Sox have won 2 world series championships recently.

“Dusty Baker was calling for Edwin Encarnacion to bunt with the team down two runs, no outs and two men on (first and second). Encarnacion looked like he had never been asked to bunt in his life and gave up two strikes. He then CRUSHED a Lyon hanger to end the game after the bunt sign was taken off. Baker wins in spite of himself and Lyon looked awful (as expected).

My favorite part of the ordeal was that Jeff Brantley had been dogging Encarnacion all night long for various different things that Brantley deemed unworthy caliber for a Major Leaguer. He even mocked him when Justin Upton hit a slow roller up the line and Encarnacion couldn’t beat him with the throw. Brantley’s a real dick when he doesn’t like how someone plays, and Encarnacion showed him up bigtime in the end. I imagine that Brantley probably echoes the sentiments of the Reds and even Baker, too. Man, I hate some of the old regime in baseball sometimes. - Bodhizefa

Here’s a video of the event

I agree with this too much. The old baseball regime was once tolerable, but their act is getting old quick. These color commentators/managers/coaches are so proud and clueless simultaneously.

“Edwin Encarnacion hit a walk-off, three-run home run. It was not only the most important hit so far this year according to WPA, but also the biggest hit of Encarnacion’s career by a long shot. His previous single most important hit was a bases clearing double all the way back in September of 2005 worth .45 wins. Tonight’s home run was worth .62 wins. -Fangraphs blog.

Fangraphs is showing WPA data in player cards now; it’s a great way to get an idea of how important certain sequences in a game are. It estimates the contribution each player has made to his team’s wins.

By the way, with the latest additions to Fangraphs (pitcher MPH data, 5 projection systems consolidated, and many other great statistics) is there any reason to use some of the other sites player cards anymore?

People are paying full price for a great product (in theory), but are being used as beta testers at the expense of their own time and money. This is more excusable for mid to low level businesses attempting to get a remarkable product off the ground; but for an established brand like Major League Baseball, it reeks of greed, and lack of foresight.

MLB’s online strategy seems to be what many companies’ strategy was in the 90s: Launch a website that serves as nothing more than a billboard that pushes their own agenda.

I don’t think people care about how awesome MLB thinks it is, and I certainly don’t think people want to be ostracized, and alienated when trying to figure out why their $119 investment isn’t living up to its billing. Just try finding and contacting their customer support; it’s a joke.

MLB should be taking advantage of what the web is today: the Social Web. A web that makes it easier than ever to communicate with, and learn about customers. It’s far too costly (long-term) for any company to give “every day Joes” like me, a reason to write a post like this. And I’m not a lone.

Have you had any problems with MLB TV?

One of my favorite blogs: Statistically Speaking, honors the most average batters from ‘81-’07, with the cleverly named Oddibe Awards.

Some of the most recent:

–> The rest of the list is here.

Over at Recondite Baseball; Jay lists 20 batters who have taken the most, and the fewest pitches per plate appearance since 2000.

Most Pitches/Plate Appearance: Jayson Werth, 4.50 Kevin Youkilis, 4.40 Bobby Abreu, 4.32 Brad Wilkerson, 4.27 Adam Dunn 4.24

Fewest Pitches/Plate Appearance: Nomar Garciaparra, 3.16 Yuniesky Betancourt, 3.22 Johnny Estrada, 3.23 Robinson Cano, 3.24 Vladimir Guerrero, 3.26

See the rest of the list here.

I was browsing through Roto Junkies’ famous message board: The Bullpen this evening; reading about Joey Votto, a player I recently traded for in my 14 team dynasty league. I don’t know if I’m a lone on this one, but I like to read analysis about a player I acquired, as a way to re assure myself I’ve made a good decision.

Anyway, I came across this stimulating comment by one of the posters:

“This is completely unsubstantiated by any statistical support, but I’ve noticed recently, that it seems when hitters come up and struggle a little bit, they tend to focus on their running game to kind of make up for the fact that they are struggling at the plate, so their SB totals seem a bit high.

I’ve noticed this during the season as well. It seems players who have the ability to steal bases, throw the ball hard, and cover a lot of ground defensively, will over compensate, and flash their tools more often–when they are struggling with the bat.

Whether the theory is legitimate or not, I think it brings up an interesting idea: What else can typical human behavior tell us about ballplayers? How can we utilize that information in our leagues?

Street is in any discussion with the games best relievers. But his fly ball percentage has increased each of the last three seasons:

Which is responsible for the increase in his HR/9 allowed:

According to fan graphs, he’s lost some velocity as well; averaging 90.4 MPH on his fastball in 2007, down from his career 91.1 average.

MPH data, and the conclusions that can be gained from it–is still fuzzy, but this observation tells us that there’s a strong correlation between a pitchers MPH and success.

Street is still only months back from an elbow injury that almost lead to TJ surgery; another “issue” worth noting.

PECOTA awards Street with the lowest projected ERA in baseball (2.51) and he’s still on the right side of the age curve; which bode well for sustained health, and increased productivity. He also boasts an eye popping (4.0) career strike out to walk ratio.

What do you think of Huston Street? He’s being drafted 132 overall, and the popular opinion seems to be–he’s one of the best MR values this season. PECOTA ranks him 20th overall as a $27.69 value in 2008.

It only took Zimmerman 269 MiLB PAs to earn a Sept. call up, after being lured away from UV with a $2.9M signing bonus in 2005.

Given his outstanding college resume, and his dominance in the Eastern League (a league known for its difficulty against batters) expectations were very high on the 20 year old prospective star.

In his ‘06 rookie season, Zimmerman didn’t disappoint. He had an outstanding rookie campaign with both the bat, and glove, falling just short of Hanley Ramirez for NL ROY:

Things weren’t all Cake & Ice Cream in 2007, though; the year he was suppose to start making pitchers look silly. He excelled with the glove; improving his defense by 19 runs (UZR +22), but took a surprising step backwards with the bat (266/.330/458) in 722 PA.

It probably had more to do with the decrease in line drives he hit, from 21% to 16%, because the rest of his batted ball data, and rate stats were in line with his career norms. There was only a -.008 difference from his real OPS, to his predicted OPS, so there isn’t any indication he was un lucky.

Why did he hit 5% less line drives in 2007? This is where a good scouting report would come in handy (maybe Saber-Scouting, the fine new scouting/sabermetric blog could help us out?)

2008 Outlook:
PECOTA projects his best season yet (.292/.357/.492) with an impressive 58% improve rate.

He’s on the right side of the age curve, and is likely to increase his skills for the next 2-3 seasons. His LD% should creep closer back to his rookie levels, but it’s hard to say for sure. His new ballpark is expected to bode well for HR hitters as well.

Fantasy Outlook:
PECOTA projects: 96R/.292/24/98RBI/8, which makes him a $21.59 value (45th overall) He’s being drafted 88.38 overall according to Kelly’s ADP report.

He’s somebody I was targeting in my dynasty league, but lost him by 3 picks. Either way he figures to be a lot more expensive in 2009.

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I wrote a guest article published at MLB Trade Rumors a few days ago. If you’re interested, here’s the link.

Some Changes:

• I’ve added a “tools” section at the far top right. There’s been some additions to the original 8. If you know of some tools that fit with what’s listed, please bring it to my attention.
• I’ve removed the “blogroll” here as well. This came after some serious deliberation, but I’d like this place to start taking the shape of more of a traditional website, than a blog.
• Registration is no longer required to comment. I’ve installed a WP Plugin that’s managing the spam that forced the requirement in the first place.

Your chances of winning the lotto are probably better; but if nothing else, its a great idea. Here are the rules:

• Pick one player every day who you think will get at least one hit
• Get a hit, your streak continues, get no hits, your streak ends.
• Be the first to reach a 57-game streak and win $1,000,000

—> Sign up page.

Here’s my $1M strategy:

• Target speedy players with high contact rates, and very low walk rates. (Hat Tip: Roto Advice) 
• Select hitters vs. opposing pitchers with low K rates, low walk rates, and high fly ball rates.
• Use 14 day splits to find batters in the midst of a hot streak, and
• Prey.