Brock for Broglio

Having trouble pulling off that blockbuster trade? Need some tips on how to approach other owners about a player you’re interested in? If so — you’ll love this weeks fantasy roundtable. 

Adam Ronis - Newsday.com

1. Don’t insult the intelligence of another owner. Obviously, some owners are more savvy and experienced than others, but if you try to belittle their knowledge, it creates a negative conversation.

2. A lot of times owners fail to look at what the other team needs and solely looks at what they need to improve on. There’s someone on the other side that needs to improve as well. For example, if you’re trying to improve your pitching and offer Mark Teixeira for Brandon Webb, it seems like a fair deal. But if the trade partner is set at 1B, CI and U, how does this help his team? He might be looking for a second baseman. Many owners just throw out trade offers. If you’re in a competitive league, you need to dig deeper into the stats.

3. An owner will often evaluate a deal and shy from pulling the trigger if they feel they’re not the winner of the deal. The goal is not to rip someone off - it would be nice but won’t happen often. If it improves your team and it’s the best deal you can get done to improve your team with the players you are willing to deal, do it. The other owner might come out looking better, but it’s all about how it helps your team. You may have a ton of power and lack speed and trade a power hitter for a speed guy and it looks lopsided. But that addition of stolen bases you really needed can push you up the standings faster than holding on to the power hitter when you lead the next guy by 20 home runs.

Tim Dierkes - RotoAuthority

1.  Don’t ignore the other team’s needs when finding your trading partner.  If you need starting pitching, you can’t just offer up Ryan Braun for Jake Peavy.  Instead I would start by finding a team that is running away with the ERA category, so much that they could sacrifice plenty.  Then identify the categories they’re lacking and see if you can help.  Nothing is more frustrating to me than getting an offer that clearly shows the other owner didn’t consider my needs.  If I have five great outfielders, don’t offer me a sixth.

2.  Don’t try to talk up the players you’re trying to trade.  Way too transparent.  Obviously the other owner is going to look at the numbers before pulling the trigger. If you try to hype up the player you’re offering it’s a dead giveaway that you think he’s a fluke in some way.  Let the stats do the talking and don’t try to “educate” the other owner on why your offer is great.

3.  Don’t bring the owner some wacky 10-player proposal.  Ugh.  It’s more of a personal preference, but I hate seeing trades like this (especially in April).  No serious player trades his three best players for someone else’s three best players.  Anything beyond a 2-for-2 trade is tough to evaluate and probably not necessary.

Rob Reed - Baseball Geeks

1. First and foremost (and my biggest pet peeves) are basic, one-sided trade offers where the owner making the offer has clearly paid no attention to my team needs and is just trying to pull one over on me.  A fair trade offer that considers the needs of the team you are trying to trade with makes it much more likely that you will be heard.  I either ignore such requests, or I throw out an equally bad (or worse) offer in return.  We can call this fantasy mutual masturbation gone bad.

2. This leads to a second mistake.  I know of a number of players who throw out fully one-sided deals with the thought that this will instigate negotiation.  Fantasy trading should never be like slick business dealing.  Let the other owner know where you think his weaknesses lie, support your claim in your offer, and request a player who fills one of your holes but who will not create a gap in the other fantasy player’s line up. 

As an example here, there is a guy in my money league who has Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, but he has terrible closers (let’s focus on Manny Corpas, who just lost the job, and Tony Pena, who is heir apparent if Lyon blows up).  Assume I have Papelbon and Nathan (and two middle tier relievers) and Ryan Garko at first.  I propose a Nathan and Garko for Fielder and Pena deal.

There is a great shot that this deal is made.  I have found my biggest weakness, utilized my biggest strength, and structured this deal so, on paper, it looks slightly more one-sided against me.  The owner sees I am reasonable, and I have just garnered respect.  Even if no deal is made now, I establish a presumption in the mind of the other manager that I play fair.  And, we can negotiate, suggesting Papelbon instead of Nathan or Corpas instead of Pena, or mix and match Howard instead of Fielder.

3. Lastly, I’m a big believer in league integrity.  I have heard on a podcast more than once and read on a few fantasy blogs suggesting that I take advantage of new players to the league who may not understand the game.  For me, this is the fantasy equivalent of stealing a base when you have a 12 run lead.  Purely bush league and a mistake in principle.

Commish - Fantasy Baseball Geeks

I will respond with concepts on this rather than specifics.  This becomes more of a sales technique than anything to do with any baseball or fantasy knowledge.

1. Do not make the other owner think you are very interested in making any trades.  Act as if you are satisfied with your roster and have empathy for their injuries or struggling players.  You should begin the dialogue, but allow them to feel as though they are in control.  You are taking their temperature to see how much roto-pain they are in.  The true test of an experienced owner and fantasy salesman is the ability to actually make the other owner make the official offer to you.  In their mind they are still in control and are doing what is necessary to improve.  This is part psychology and partly downright manipulative, but if done correctly will reap tremendous buy-low rewards.  This takes practice to prefect, so get to work.

2. Do not email, offer, or reject a trade while intoxicated.  You run the risk of doing something stupid and impaired judgement can lead to fantasy mistakes.  This happens all the time and could ruin your season and friendships in the process - wait until morning to handle things rationally.

3. Do not ever under any circumstances let other owners know you are involved in discussions with a particular owner.  This can lead to someone else vulturing in to make a better deal or to drive up the value on you.  Even best friends will stab you in the back to acquire B.J. Upton on the cheap. 

Lastly and completely off topic - don’t trade just to trade.  In other words don’t be the guy that turns over his entire roster by seasons end.  It might be fun to wheel and deal, but it is a recipe for failure to completely de-construct a roster. 

Patrick DiCaprio - Fantasy Baseball Generals

1. Thinking only about your team and needs. This should be obvious but isn’t. As I recently discussed on my website, I was approached for one of my closers (Gregg and Wagner) with the proviso “I won’t trade players x and y.” This left waiver wire type pitchers that he was hoping to deal. Why I would trade a closer for these guys was left unanswered.

2. The league wide email solicitation. This is a sure sign of a lazy owner. The others have no obligation to respond so why would they?

3. Not realizing that most trades are marginal. Most trades end up providing little gain or cost in reality. So don’t be a jerk about a trade that is marginal anyway, be nice and you may end up getting a bigger fish down the line.

Thanks to the participants for allowing me to ask this weeks question, and host.

I’m sure you’re tired of hearing about exercising patience with your players. You want to know when their performance starts to mean something. Pizza Cutter @ Statistically Speaking, wanted to the know the same thing. He crunched the numbers, and here’s what he found:

These are the PA levels–at which, the players’ performance–can tell us about their skill going forward:

• 50 PA - swing percentage
• 100 PA - contact rate
• 150 PA - K rate, line drive rate, pitches/PA
• 200 PA - BB rate, grounder rate, GB/FB ratio
• 250 PA - flyball rate
• 300 PA - HR rate, HR/FB
• 350 PA - sensitivity
• 400 PA - none
• 450 PA -none
• 500 PA - OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B rate, popup rate
• 550 PA - ISO
• 600 PA - none
• 650 PA - none

1. So after 100 PA (roughly a month, if a player is starting nearly everyday), I can tell you about how much a batter likes to swing and how good he is at making contact.
2. At 150 PA I can tell you if [the batter] likes to hit line drives (and line drives are good…)
3. At 150 PA, I can also start telling whether [the batter] likes to work the count and whether he’s a strikeout king. 
4. By 250 PA, I can tell a lot about his walking tendencies and what he’s going to be a ground ball hitter or a flyball hitter. 
5. At 300 PA, I finally find out whether or not the player likes to hit the ball out of the park every once in a while. 
6. Finally, a lot of the usual 1-number stats (OBP, SLG, OPS) don’t stablize until 500 PA, as well as knowing whether you’re a singles hitter.

Here is a list of good teams to activate spot starters against: (Don’t forget about ballparks)

• San Francisco Giants (Home & Away)
• Washington Nationals (Home & Away)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (Home & Away)
• Arizona Diamondbacks (Away)
• San Diego Padres (Home)

Here are 5 more, but proceed with a little more caution:

• St. Louis Cardinals (Home & Away)
• Kansas City Royals (Home & Away)
• Florida Marlins (Home)
• Seattle Mariners (Home & Away)
• Cincinnati Reds (Away)

I was browsing through Roto Junkies’ famous message board: The Bullpen this evening; reading about Joey Votto, a player I recently traded for in my 14 team dynasty league. I don’t know if I’m a lone on this one, but I like to read analysis about a player I acquired, as a way to re assure myself I’ve made a good decision.

Anyway, I came across this stimulating comment by one of the posters:

“This is completely unsubstantiated by any statistical support, but I’ve noticed recently, that it seems when hitters come up and struggle a little bit, they tend to focus on their running game to kind of make up for the fact that they are struggling at the plate, so their SB totals seem a bit high.

I’ve noticed this during the season as well. It seems players who have the ability to steal bases, throw the ball hard, and cover a lot of ground defensively, will over compensate, and flash their tools more often–when they are struggling with the bat.

Whether the theory is legitimate or not, I think it brings up an interesting idea: What else can typical human behavior tell us about ballplayers? How can we utilize that information in our leagues?

You get home from a long days work; turn on your computer, and visit your league page…

Awesome! Just what you wanted to see: via the league announcement you made yesterday; you now have trade feedback.

There’s several offers that look solid on the surface, but you want to do some further investigating before making any decisions.

You open up your reliable Google homepage, and enter in a few search queries; you want the latest news about the player in mention:

• Daric Barton + Rotoworld
• Daric Barton + CBS

You know these queries will make the players’ player card the first result. Once you get there, you read the weeks worth of blurbs about the players’ health and performance, and everything checks out ok.

This is your fantasy team we’re talking about, and you really want to make sure, so you go to Fanball.com, and read the latest about Barton via their player search engine.

A long the way, you read several opinions about Barton, but you know those are short summaries/blurbs. You know you can make better decisions about a players future performance by doing your own legwork.

Barton is a rookie, without much of a big league track record, so you go to FirstInning.com, and do a search for his player card.

You look at his minor league statistics:

There’s an apparent lack of power in his numbers. The stats don’t tell the whole story. So you look for scouting reports from reliable sources.

You know the passionate major league prospect fans at Project Prospect would be glad to share their thoughts about Barton. But before posting a new message asking for feedback, you use the search functionality on the message board. And you find this nugget.

As much as you respect the community’s opinion, you might want to find some sources who’ve talked to major league scouts. Maybe a BA subscription would come in handy. You do a Google search “Daric Barton + Baseball America”

You find out that in 2006 Barton was the A’s #1 prospect.

That doesn’t say much; the A’s have had one of the worst farm systems over the last 3-5 seasons. So you dig deeper at Baseball America for scouting reports….

You find Kevin Goldstein’s professional opinion in 2006:

“…The A’s are convinced he’ll eventually produce 25-30 homers on an annual basis, citing his hitting ability and the scouting axiom that power often is the last tool to develop. Others think he might top out at 15-20 homers, less than ideal production for a first baseman.

<SNIP>

You want to know what BA had to say about Barton’s power most recently, too:

“…He has a textbook swing, fluid and short with a bit of loft, hinting at future power.

<SNIP>

You look at his short 2007 Sept. call up: (espn + daric barton)

You know the sample is insufficient, but that doesn’t mean the performance should be ignored.

Maybe the Daric Barton scouting reports are coming to fruition?

You’re not done yet. You want to see how many runs Barton can produce by looking at his teams run expectancy. The A’s rank 11th out of 30 teams.

You now have a well rounded idea of what you can expect from Barton going forward.

———

ISO is Isolated Power. It’s Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average. (SLG-BA). I like to use Isolated Power to get a more defining picture of a players power output. ISO is one of the more reliable hitting metrics from year to year. After 550PA ISO becomes reliable.

Here’s a chart:

In a thread at Fantasy Baseball Cafe, there’s an on going discussion about the relevance of spring training statistics. 

Given the lack of competition–due to expanded rosters–I don’t believe spring training reveals much of anything. I do acknowledge that many have their own theories. And this one (by Dark Knight) makes sense to me:

“I always look at spring training SB numbers, to see which managers are going to turn their runners loose.

So far here are some SB sleepers running this spring:

Lastings Milledge has 4 SB this spring with 1 CS
Michael Bourn has 4 SB this spring with 2 CS

So far Velez has 6 SB this spring with 0 CS. He also has 8 Runs. If Omar Vizquel stays injured, then E.Velez can be a SB monster.

<snip>

For those of you reading this via your feed reader, you’re going to have to visit the page to see the graph. It’s an embedded Google Doc.

Yesterday we looked at batters who were unlucky in 2007. Today we look at batters who were lucky in 2007. The higher the “OPS-PrOPS” the more lucky that batter was last season. And the more likely they’re to regress in 2008.

I’m going to use PrOPS developed by JC Bradbury to highlight unlucky batters in 2007 by position. If you want to read more about the nuts and bolts of PrOPS you can here.

All you need to know in this context - is the further “negative” from 0 the more unlucky the batter was last season. Going forward into 2008, the batter’s OPS should be more in line with his PrOPS (Predicted OPS) from last season.

* Positions are clickable

..that might be true if you’re in love with somebody 10 years your senior; but in fantasy baseball, age is everything.

You want a team full of players on the upward swing of the age curve:

The average player doesn’t “breakout” at age 27, they increase their skill level from age 20-26 (when the greatest chance for a breakout will occur), enjoy a season or three at their “peak”, and then decline thereafter. (Studies: 1 | 2 )

There’s hundreds of metrics that give us clues about any given players worth. As value detectives we want to pay attention to the right clues. We want defining evidence, not superfluous excess. So what data matters? What clues tell the real story? In this article I’m going to answer those questions by identifying the opposite.

1. Spring Training Cliches

We’ve all heard the hyperbolic statements given by coaches and players in the offseason. Some of us might’ve even bought into their optimism a time or two. In 2005 Adam Dunn said he would steal 40 bases, and Vernon Wells swore he prepped his body for a 30/30 season. Or what about 2006 when Zito claimed he rediscovered his 90-92MPH fastball? The list goes on…

Ultimately, almost none of these claims materialize into anything other than false hope.

My Theory:
By the time a player gets to the majors, he’s been through many off-season regimens (high school, college, minors, etc). Incentive is at its highest for young MLB prospects to “build muscle”, “lose weight”, “get eye surgery”, “find velocity” etc. If a player has shown the ability to increase his physical body–that results in higher production–it can be identified in his previous season statistics. There’s a prodigious amount of available and accessible data; trust it. (the right data of course)

2. Run Totals

Runs tell us almost nothing and are highly susceptible to off-season roster reshuffling. Instead of looking at a players previous run total, get a good understanding of where players are positioned in their line up, and how many runs that lineup can potentially produce. When targeting the runs category, find players who meet the following criteria:

• High BA/OBP
• Bats at the top of a run producing offense.
• Has speed as defined by the ability to bunt for hits, get infield hits, and steal bases.

3. RBI Totals

Apply many of the explanations given in #2. When targeting the RBI category, find players who can:

• Hit for power and average as identified by: a high Contact Rate, high FB% & high Isolated Power
• Bat behind players who have the same skill set as described in #2
• Play in a lineup that’s great at avoiding outs

* For team run production projections, visit Baseball Musings. Pinto, has an on going series using Marcel 2008 projections and the line up analysis tool. It would be a good idea to rank the top 30 and draft/pay accordingly.

4. ERA & 5. WHIP

In a previous entry I detailed why ERA and WHIP do a poor job at summarizing a pitchers skill level. You want to pay for pitchers who have been successful at:

• Striking out their opposition (high K/PA)
• Inducing ground balls (high GB%)
• Controlling the strike zone (low BB/PA), and
• Getting batters out efficiently (low P/PA)

If a pitcher had success in these areas last season–but his ERA/WHIP were poor–than he was probably on the wrong side of luck, and should be a nice value selection in your upcoming draft.

6. Save Totals

A players save totals from year to year are mostly just random variance. Elite, good, and average teams compete for the same amount of save opportunities annually. When targeting the saves category find pitchers who:

• Excel in the areas mentioned in #4/5, and
• are the best pitchers in their respective teams bullpen (eliminating competition issues).

7. Win Totals

Target effective pitchers with high IP totals on teams that win a lot of games. And even than, it’s still a matter of luck. Why is this even a standard category anymore?

So there you have it, a macro view of information and statistics you should ignore in place of more player defining alternatives.  How much do you agree or disagree with this list?