Brock for Broglio

No worries, lets talk about Dana Eveland.

He dominated the batter-friendly PCL at age 22, and was mismanaged in 2007. Looking at his minor league numbers; his early success is no fluke. He induces GB’s at a high rate, and K’s a batter per inning.

Here’s his minor league statistics:

He pitches in a great park; in front of a good Oakland defense.

For those who missed out on Johnny Cueto, Eveland is a fine alternative. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit, if Eveland ends up out producing Cueto this season.

“Dusty Baker was calling for Edwin Encarnacion to bunt with the team down two runs, no outs and two men on (first and second). Encarnacion looked like he had never been asked to bunt in his life and gave up two strikes. He then CRUSHED a Lyon hanger to end the game after the bunt sign was taken off. Baker wins in spite of himself and Lyon looked awful (as expected).

My favorite part of the ordeal was that Jeff Brantley had been dogging Encarnacion all night long for various different things that Brantley deemed unworthy caliber for a Major Leaguer. He even mocked him when Justin Upton hit a slow roller up the line and Encarnacion couldn’t beat him with the throw. Brantley’s a real dick when he doesn’t like how someone plays, and Encarnacion showed him up bigtime in the end. I imagine that Brantley probably echoes the sentiments of the Reds and even Baker, too. Man, I hate some of the old regime in baseball sometimes. - Bodhizefa

Here’s a video of the event

I agree with this too much. The old baseball regime was once tolerable, but their act is getting old quick. These color commentators/managers/coaches are so proud and clueless simultaneously.

“Edwin Encarnacion hit a walk-off, three-run home run. It was not only the most important hit so far this year according to WPA, but also the biggest hit of Encarnacion’s career by a long shot. His previous single most important hit was a bases clearing double all the way back in September of 2005 worth .45 wins. Tonight’s home run was worth .62 wins. -Fangraphs blog.

Fangraphs is showing WPA data in player cards now; it’s a great way to get an idea of how important certain sequences in a game are. It estimates the contribution each player has made to his team’s wins.

By the way, with the latest additions to Fangraphs (pitcher MPH data, 5 projection systems consolidated, and many other great statistics) is there any reason to use some of the other sites player cards anymore?

Street is in any discussion with the games best relievers. But his fly ball percentage has increased each of the last three seasons:

Which is responsible for the increase in his HR/9 allowed:

According to fan graphs, he’s lost some velocity as well; averaging 90.4 MPH on his fastball in 2007, down from his career 91.1 average.

MPH data, and the conclusions that can be gained from it–is still fuzzy, but this observation tells us that there’s a strong correlation between a pitchers MPH and success.

Street is still only months back from an elbow injury that almost lead to TJ surgery; another “issue” worth noting.

PECOTA awards Street with the lowest projected ERA in baseball (2.51) and he’s still on the right side of the age curve; which bode well for sustained health, and increased productivity. He also boasts an eye popping (4.0) career strike out to walk ratio.

What do you think of Huston Street? He’s being drafted 132 overall, and the popular opinion seems to be–he’s one of the best MR values this season. PECOTA ranks him 20th overall as a $27.69 value in 2008.

It only took Zimmerman 269 MiLB PAs to earn a Sept. call up, after being lured away from UV with a $2.9M signing bonus in 2005.

Given his outstanding college resume, and his dominance in the Eastern League (a league known for its difficulty against batters) expectations were very high on the 20 year old prospective star.

In his ‘06 rookie season, Zimmerman didn’t disappoint. He had an outstanding rookie campaign with both the bat, and glove, falling just short of Hanley Ramirez for NL ROY:

Things weren’t all Cake & Ice Cream in 2007, though; the year he was suppose to start making pitchers look silly. He excelled with the glove; improving his defense by 19 runs (UZR +22), but took a surprising step backwards with the bat (266/.330/458) in 722 PA.

It probably had more to do with the decrease in line drives he hit, from 21% to 16%, because the rest of his batted ball data, and rate stats were in line with his career norms. There was only a -.008 difference from his real OPS, to his predicted OPS, so there isn’t any indication he was un lucky.

Why did he hit 5% less line drives in 2007? This is where a good scouting report would come in handy (maybe Saber-Scouting, the fine new scouting/sabermetric blog could help us out?)

2008 Outlook:
PECOTA projects his best season yet (.292/.357/.492) with an impressive 58% improve rate.

He’s on the right side of the age curve, and is likely to increase his skills for the next 2-3 seasons. His LD% should creep closer back to his rookie levels, but it’s hard to say for sure. His new ballpark is expected to bode well for HR hitters as well.

Fantasy Outlook:
PECOTA projects: 96R/.292/24/98RBI/8, which makes him a $21.59 value (45th overall) He’s being drafted 88.38 overall according to Kelly’s ADP report.

He’s somebody I was targeting in my dynasty league, but lost him by 3 picks. Either way he figures to be a lot more expensive in 2009.

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The National Post is reporting that B.J. Ryan felt sore after his relief appearance on Monday:

“…medical staff found no cause for alarm when they checked him out yesterday morning, a team spokesman said.

Any discomfort (even mild) is not good news for a pitcher trying to fully rehab from reconstructive elbow surgery in just 10 months.

Back in February, Chris Neault (a licensed physical therapist), wrote a highly informative piece about B.J. Ryan and his 2008 outlook:

“…Ryan possesses quite an unorthodox approach to the plate, with a lot of violent whipping motions at his elbow and shoulder.” He went on to say: “These mechanics ultimately led him to [Tommy John] surgery.”

If Jeremy Accardo is available in your league, stash him. He’s probably the most valuable MR without a CL job–which will change if Ryan can’t remain healthy. PECOTA likes Accardo projecting a K/9 of 8.0, and a 3.70 era.

UPDATE: It’s very likely B.J. Ryan will start the season on the DL. With no date set for pitching activities to resume again.

Zito’s claim to fame has been his durability; pitching in 223 innings per season throughout his A’s tenure. Zito was a VORP star because of it; ranking amongst the top 15 in VORP 4 out of his 6 full seasons with the A’s.

One thing VORP doesn’t do is neutralize for defense, and that’s where anything good about Zito’s Post Cy Young Award Winning Career ends. Zito had the fortune of pitching in front of some of the best defensive outfields during his last three A’s seasons, which masked his declining peripherals: Poor career strikeout to walk ratio (1.91), and poor career groundball rate (38%).

This bullet, in a recent Olney entry, has to warm the hearts of Giants fans all over America:

• Barry Zito’s fastball is being clocked in the low 80s, as Andrew Baggarly writes, and his ERA is 14.92. And there is this: He has faced 67 batters [this spring] without recording a strikeout.

In a (subscriber-only) blog entry at ESPN; Keith Law compared Alexei Ramirez’ tools to that of Alfonso Soriano, who some argue is the most physically gifted athlete in all of baseball.

“…Ramirez reminds me in a lot of ways of Alfonso Soriano, although he doesn’t have Soriano’s explosiveness at the plate. His swing has Soriano’s exaggerated finish, and when he connects he has plus raw power to his pull side (left field) and can at least put it to the wall to the opposite field.

With the 2B job still up for grabs on the South Side, Ramirez is somebody worth keeping a very close eye on. Law also goes on to say:

“…If the White Sox give Ramirez a starting job, he’s likely to hit for a decent average with 20-homer power, but his OBP would be poor because he’s not going to draw many walks.

PECOTA backs up Law’s analysis, projecting a .292 batting-average, with 12 long-balls, in 456 plate appearances. He’s also good for at least double digit steals if given that many PA.

UPDATE: It looks like Alexei Ramirez has officially made the team. Yahoo hasn’t added him to their system as of 03/22, but keep an eye out.

Here’s a video of an Alexei Ramirez HR:

I’ve been reading a lot of negative feedback about Homer Bailey lately. Cueto is an outstanding pitching prospect, but given a choice between the two, my money is still on Bailey having the more productive career.

Don’t let Bailey’s lackluster major league campaign fool you. Besides a poor minor league walk rate (4.23), all of his peripherals point to a major league ace in the making. His skill set is also hitter-park defensible. Bailey is one of those rare pitchers who induce a lot of groundballs, and strike out more than a batter per IP.

Minor League Totals:

Scouts rave about his general athleticism, and his body bodes well for sustained health and heavy workload. 

Last season, he threw strikes on only 58 percent of pitches in the majors, and just 61 percent in Triple-A. Obviously his command/control is a current problem, but at 21.8 years old, he still has more than enough time to refine that area of his game.

For those in dynasty set ups, let people continue to jump on the Cueto band wagon, and swipe Bailey at a value. Even those in redraft leagues, keep an eye out for a second half call up; his potential is immense.

Jeff Keppinger (UTIL-Cin.) has put up a very quiet .309/.367/.439 career line. His production is no fluke either. His minor league .321/.374/.420. in 2368 PA has been just as outstanding.

With A-Gone out (broken knee), Keppinger might finally get an opportunity to play everyday at SS. Given his ballpark, position elig., and minor league track record, Keppinger should be on everybody’s fantasy radar.