Brock for Broglio

Voros McCracken has consulted with the Boston Red Sox front office, and won a World Series during his time with the team. He revolutionized pitcher evaluation methodology by discovering Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS) in 1999. Currently he is writing columns for the fine Baseball Digest Daily.

Q. Can you share three things about yourself people probably don’t know?

A. One, I was ejected from an Intramural basketball game back in 1989 by current Ohio State basketball coach Thad Matta (he was the ref and I directed a colorful vocabulary word at him that he didn’t appreciate). Two, I was a die-hard Cubs fan early in my life and, for reasons I don’t really understand, I no longer am one. Three, I have been diagnosed with Bipolar Disorder though I, and others, are somewhat skeptical that this is actually the case.

Q. What was working with the Red Sox front office like?

A. Well to make things clear, I didn’t spend a whole lot of time in Boston so insight into the daily workings of the actual office will have to come from elsewhere. In terms of my work with the Red Sox it was mostly enjoyable but occasionally frustrating. Being able to have the ear of an MLB GM is something most of the people who do what I do aspire to and it was indeed very {searching for a word} exhilarating? On the other hand the money was lousy, and at times I was left without any real idea of what kind of effect I was having on things. When you work on something for five months, deliver the final product and hear little back about it, it can be disheartening.

One of the things that kind of bugged me with the Red Sox was a somewhat implied expectation that I’d come up with something like DIPS on a regular basis. Whether that’s reasonable for someone else or not, I personally just don’t have that in me.

Q. What type of work are you doing these days; any comprehensive metrics on the burner?

A. Not really. I’m planning on talking a little about the work I did on college hitting statistics with the Red Sox. I’m trying to refine my old projection system to have it in time for next year. But for the most part my main focus is going to try and be on a book I’m writing. I’m hoping it will be sort of a David Sedaris meets straight Stat-Geek sort of thing. Everybody is doing annuals so I thought I’d try something a little different. Realistically, selling books is one of the few ways someone can make money doing this sort of stuff. Even if no one buys it, I’ll probably enjoy writing it so it’s win/win either way.

Q. It seems HR Allowed has become a controversial statistic. I’ve read studies that say pitchers have control over the amount of HR’s they allow, and I’ve read studies that claim the opposite. Can you share your opinion about this?

A. I don’t think anyone is really arguing that pitchers have no control over the number of Home Runs they allow. That’s easy enough to disprove. The argument, as I understand it, is whether pitchers can influence Home Runs Allowed as a percentage of Fly Balls Allowed. There are definitely fly ball pitchers out there, so the argument seems to be over whether Home Runs differ relative to fly ball and ground ball percentages. I don’t have the data, nor have I gone through it one way or the other, but everyone involved seems to generally know what they’re doing. I guess I’ll just wait and see like everyone else.

Q. What position–in a batting order–should typically yield the most run producing opportunities? (e.g., R, RBI, etc)

A. I suppose I can do some quick BS stat geekery to give insight. You can run a linear regression for 2006 stats for the individual components (2Bs, HRs, BBs, etc.) and compare them to runs scored for individual players. Then you can use that formula to compare how many runs each spot in the batting order should score (given those components) compared to how many were actually scored. You can do the same for RBIs.

The basic problem with this method is that lineup order position is often contained within individual players stats (fast players tend to hit leadoff more, sluggers tend to hit in the middle of the order). Still it’s the best I can do on short notice. Leadoff hitters only score 4% more than expected (which is almost certainly a side effect of the problem I just mentioned) while driving in 12% less than expected. Number two hitters score 10% more than expected while driving in 6% less. Three hitters score and drive in 2% more than expected, while cleanup scores half a percent more and drive in 4% more than expected.

Given that the two hole gets roughly 18 more plate appearances per season per team than the three hole, there’s an argument to be made that the two hole is at least as good as the three hole.

If that wasn’t the question, I apologize, but I decided to try and answer it anyway. I’m sure other people have done this more in depth.

Q. Has there been any research into barometric pressure? (e.g., Does the climate in Washington contribute to poor batting performance, as much as the stadium? And do pitches break differently or less effectively in different conditions?)

A. The answer to both of the above is clearly “yes” and Adair’s Physics of Baseball talks about it. The real issue is how much these effects really matter. Generally I’ve been of the opinion that stat geeks like myself have tended to give park effects more play than may be warranted. Outside of severe outliers like Coors Field or the Old Griffith Stadium, the extent to which park seems to matter is surprisingly small. Both myself and Tommy Tango have looked at the accuracy of projections with and without adjusting for park and have found very little advantage to be gained via park adjustment, except in extreme cases.

I think this simply is because most plays in baseball are unambiguous. Most doubles are doubles regardless of MLB park. The human mind seems to be able to react to breaking balls that break 0.6 inches as opposed to 0.8. The effects are real, but, if I had to guess, I’d say that they’re smaller than folks think.

Q. Is there a different composition of a team, and different style of play that is required to maximize chances to win in the post-season, as compared to the regular season?

A. As best as I can tell, the best way to win in the playoffs is to go there as often as possible. While there are other team construction strategies that make sense (e.g., dominant front line pitching since the off days allow you to compress your pitching staff), I think there’s limits to how much value you can really get out of that, over and above the value you would get in the regular season. Yes it clearly helps you win more in the post season, but then it clearly helps you win more in the regular season too.

Baseball is a sport where a team with a .650 winning percentage is a team that ranks up there with some of the best. It’s often argued that stat geeks too often fall back on sample size arguments, but here it’s tough to escape. Put the best possible team together you can and take your chances. If you can, you might want to get yourself a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but don’t give away the store to do it.

Q. Can you share your best advice to somebody who might be looking for a professional opportunity with a major league front office?

A. Before even bothering to undertake your plan, make sure you’ve set yourself up financially as MLB teams don’t tend to pay well to folks without numbers on their backs. My route was unusual as they found me, so I’m a little limited in the ability to advise people the other way around. If you’re young (still in school) search for internships while you’re attending college. A lot of people currently in front offices (like Theo Epstein) have gone that route.

If you have the ability, go as far as you humanly can as a player. Being able to say you played regularly in college ball (even lower divisions) can be a plus on your side. If you’re older, your path is more difficult, and to get the best advice from there you’d have to ask someone else. I honestly don’t know.

I’d like to thank Voros for taking the time to answers these questions carefully, and astutely. I’d advise anybody interested in learning more about baseball, and its history; to follow his blog, and baseball columns at baseball digest daily.

Jeff Euston (Founder of Cot’s Contracts) has built one of the most referenced baseball resources on the Internet. Want to know how long Jose Reyes is still cost controlled? What about the special perks associated with Zito’s 7/$126M.M? All of this information can be found at Cot’s Contracts.

Can you share some information about yourself: background, career, etc?

“I’m a baseball fan near Kansas City, and when I’m not following the game, I work as an attorney. I grew up in both KC and St. Louis, so those are the teams I grew up watching. My first baseball memories are playing catch with my dad and being impressed by the size of the big crown scoreboard in KC.

What was your inspiration for starting Cot’s?

“I started the site in 2005 because I didn’t know of a source where a fan could find out a player’s contract status. Like most fans, my friends have running conversations about how teams should spend money, and we’d get bogged down trying to find out when a player became a free agent or how many years were left on his contract.

I had tracked contracts for a few years, with the thought of possibly working as a player agent. I’d thought about making the information available on-line, and a blog seemed to be an easy format. The site is named for Cotton Tierney, who was my great grandfather’s brother. I have a copy of his 1923 contract with the Phillies. The salary was just $5,000, but many of the other terms are largely the same as those found in the uniform player contract used today.

What fun or interesting opportunities have come your way through Cot’s?

“The site has generated much more of a response than I ever expected. I get feedback every day from everyone from fans, media members and fantasy owners to agents, front office executives and grad students writing dissertations on economics.

It has been fun seeing the site mentioned in a number of places, including Baseball Prospectus, Maury Brown’s bizofbaseball.com web site, SI.com and Bill Simmons’ Page 2 column at ESPN.com.

What are your long term goals for the site?

“I’d like to eventually include a spreadsheet summary of each team’s financial outlook going forward. I’d also love to catalog more historical contract information for notable players from the past.

How do you gather gritty details about these seemingly more complex contracts?

“My sources for financial terms are usually Associated Press stories reporting the signings or stories by the local writers who regularly cover a particular team.

The beat writers are a great source for bonuses or perks, but it varies by city. All the details of Johan Santana’s deal were public almost immediately, for example. But the details on an extension for, say, Kansas City’s David DeJesus trickle out a few days later, if at all. I occasionally get tips or specifics from agents or people working in the game. Also, USA Today’s Salary Database is a great source for annual salaries.

What is one of the most unique contract structures you’ve seen?

“Well, the Rays gave Troy Percival a vintage car this past off-season. The Royals’ ill-fated $55 million extension for Mike Sweeney included a unique clause that guaranteed the final three years if KC finished .500, and, at the other extreme, Curt Schilling had a 2007 option vest when Boston won the 2004 Series. (MLB apparently frowns on those types of clauses now.) Players coming over from Japan routinely get a big package of perks now: flights to and from Japan, translators, massage therapists, a housing allowance. Several veterans have hotel suites on the road written in to their deals. But my favorite is Astros owner Drayton McLane giving Roy Oswalt a bulldozer the year after he won Game 6 of the 2005 NLCS.

What would your best advice be to somebody looking to start a baseball website?

“Write about what interests you, whether it’s a player, a team, statistical analysis, scouting, amateur baseball, fantasy baseball, the draft, the business side of the game or anything else. There are other people out there with the same interests.

What’s one strategy in fantasy baseball that might be underrated or under utilized?

“Well, this isn’t groundbreaking, but a player’s contract status can be an important factor when it comes to playing time opportunities. You might gain a small edge over your competition if you know where a player was drafted, how much an organization has invested in him, how many options he has remaining.

 
I’d like to thank Jeff for his time; both by answering these questions, and building an invaluable resource. Beyond the contractual information at Cot’s Contracts, there’s some great articles, and information about the many different waiver and draft processes in Major League Baseball.

Tom Tango, (aka Tangotiger) runs the Tango on Baseball website, where you’ll find a large number of research devoted to sabermetrics. He works as a consultant for major league teams in hockey, and has worked as a consultant in major league baseball. Born and raised in Canada, he now resides in New Jersey with his family.

“Looking back my first memory of baseball was the Bucky Dent game; though I was watching the Sox that whole season. I was 10.

Back then, we had no cable. We used to get the signal on UHF 22. So, that’s how I became hooked on the Redsox: it was the only team outside of the Expos that was broadcast in Montreal. That, and the sight of the Wall.

That’s how you get fans: get them young, and make it seem like what they are watching is special. And in the late 70s, Montreal was a great sports town. The Olympics in ‘76. The Canadiens had arguably the greatest team in all of sports history, reeling off 4 straight Stanley Cups. The Montreal Alouettes were Grey Cup contenders.

The Expos were a team of destiny. Unfortunately, that destiny was Blue Monday. And the Montreal Manic (soccer team) were on the verge of setting the city on fire. Nothing like being indoctrinated into the world of sports in a city of championship-caliber competition at such a young and impressionable age.

“Working in MLB is not this exciting venture. You are just this cog on the wheel, paid as much, and given as much attention. The GM is the power broker, and everyone else is just a helping hand. That’s why the GM gets paid millions, and everyone else gets paid at a discount compared to similar jobs in corporate America.

My goals are to have a dialogue with people open to looking at data in new ways, and avoid those who will argue in the face of mounting evidence. The former group you can come to a reasonable basis for discussion, while with the latter, there is no middle ground. I have no aspirations to work in an MLB front office, any more than I’d like to work for Oracle, Accenture, or IBM.

“I wouldn’t call it exciting, but the coolest thing was getting feedback from Tim Raines’ lawyer that Raines really liked our website for him: Raines30.com

Michael Lewis had also contacted me regarding a book he was writing (Moneyball). He mentioned that the A’s front office actually was reading my research. That’s around when I heard of other front offices reading my stuff. A few contacted me for work. And when we published our book, there were orders from several teams, including multiple copies for a couple of the teams. We self-published the original edition, so I could see the orders coming in. Kinda neat.

“There are two main components:

• player valuation, and
• player acquisition

The valuation part is really easy…

 

The basic formula for hitters is:

HR/10 + SB/10 + xH/10 + R/30 + RBI/30

 

And for pitchers, it’s:

W/5 + SV/10 + SO/50 + xER/10 + xWHIP/15

 

The acquisition part (drafting, bidding, keepers, etc) is a tiny bit harder. I’m sure the Ron Shandlers of the world would be in a better position to give guidance here. But, I don’t really see it as an issue.

“The “experts”, fantasy, reality, media, fans, etc make things out to be so much harder, but it’s quite the opposite, once you shed your biases and authoritative persona.

You use a simple forecasting engine to get your numbers, a simple dollar generator to get your fantasy dollars, and you are on your way. I have to believe that if you play with typical fans that you can get at least 10% ROI. That is, if every team has to spend 100 million$ on players, then you should be able to get at least 110 million$ worth of players for that money, if not alot more. That doesn’t guarantee success, but it certainly gives you a great start.

 
I’d like to thank Tom Tango for participating. He was surprisingly accessible while working with me to put this together. I’d highly recommend visiting his site at Inside the Book - no man combines the beauty of numbers and baseball more seamlessly.

Shawn Hoffman’s Wall Street analysis of major league baseball is one of my favorite reads. I was thrilled when he agreed to answer some questions for us, and share a little bit about his background, and the correlations between fantasy baseball and Wall Street.  

“ I was born and raised in New York City, but was coerced into being an all-around Pittsburgh fan by an overbearing mother. For three years, I worked as a statistical consultant for the University of Michigan baseball team, where we accomplished some things under the radar that I’m extremely proud of. I’ve had a bit of experience working as a Major League office gopher, and I’m currently working as a partner in a web startup that has nothing to do with sports. My greatest passions are business and baseball, and the blog allows me to satisfy both. My favorite baseball players of all-time are Matt Stairs, Frank Thomas, and Barry Bonds, and my favorite non-baseball athletes are Hines Ward and Mario Lemieux.

“ Peter is on a very, very short list of media figures I would actually like to meet. I don’t always agree with everything he writes, particularly when it comes to sabermetrics and analysis. But he’s one of the few journalists in sports today that does his job (breaking stories, bringing readers inside the industry, etc.) incredibly well, without feeling the need to play GM or constantly criticize people.

I think the article you’re referring to is further proof that the world is shrinking very fast. We started this blog in September as a self-indulgent way to hear our own voices, and a couple months later Peter Gammons is mentioning it in his column. I really believe that anyone who does not create some sort of web presence for himself or herself is missing an easy opportunity to get their names out there and connect with people they never would have otherwise.

“ Know who you’re dealing with. There are generally two types of trading partners: those that are competent, and are willing to make mutually beneficial deals, or those that are incompetent, and can be taken advantage of.

With good trading partners, try to look for depth on their team, and your own. That’s the easiest way to make a deal that benefits both sides. Usually these trades can get done pretty quickly, since you both have done your homework. With bad trading partners, exploit their weaknesses. What players are they misevaluating? What information are they not aware of? These are also usually the owners that make trades just to make trades. 

I generally like to stick by my guns.  I make very few trades, unless I’m totally blown away. As soon as a draft ends, people are already making offers. What’s the point? Why pick a guy if you’re just going to trade him five minutes later? Pick the players that you think will help your team the most, and stick by them, because your first evaluations are usually your most thought out.

“ It sounds funny, but fantasy baseball is more like a stock market than the real player market is. Real life teams succeed primarily by drafting and developing their own players. If we consider players to be “stocks,” this would be like saying that the best way for a hedge fund manager to succeed is by starting a number of his own companies.

With fantasy baseball, though, there are no long-term contracts, no marketing investments tied to certain players, no human egos to massage, etc. You are creating a short term portfolio, and each player is essentially his own stock. You have six months to extract as much value out of that portfolio as possible.

With any type of portfolio, you need to constantly reevaluate your own holdings, as well as others’. A great stock today might be a dog tomorrow. If Albert Pujols ends up having Tommy John surgery, his value tanks, just as Apple’s would if Steve Jobs were hit by a bus. That possibility has to be priced in when you decide whether to draft Pujols with your first pick.

“ One great thing about fantasy baseball is that there is no questioning a player’s value. Whatever he does, it’s worth a certain amount of points, depending on your league’s criteria. No arguments.

On the other hand, a negative aspect of fantasy is that these criteria are usually more in line with Bill Plaschke’s view of the world than Bill James’s. I.e., stolen bases are worth as much as home runs.

The key is proper evaluation, regardless of your league format. This is something I have had trouble with when I do fantasy drafts, because I have never been able to force myself to take Juan Pierre over Lance Berkman. But in many leagues, Pierre has been a more valuable player in certain years.

One tenet that spans both worlds is the inherent unreliability of pitchers. Even with everything going his way, I can’t imagine taking Johan Santana in the first round this year, nor would I have signed him to a real-life contract through 2014. With pitchers, you need to rely more on quality out of quantity. I usually stack my early rounds with position players, dabble with maybe 2 or 3 starting pitchers in the first 10 picks or so, and pick my relievers last. Unless you’re in a 20 team league, you should be able to find decent relief pitchers late in the draft.

“ What we want to do with the Data Project is collect any and all financial info we can, but with a particular focus on league and team data. The benefits of this kind of project are almost endless, but the main goal from a sabermetric point of view would be to improve existing Marginal Revenue Product calculations. This would allow us to put a real price on free agents, draft picks, etc. The systems that exist today are far too general to have any real meaning.

Right now, we’re determining what the best platform would be to make the data publicly available for people to use and contribute to. There are several new open database sites that have wiki functionality, but we want to make sure we have the best possible framework before we move forward.

I want to thank Shawn for answering these questions for us thoroughly and insightfully. I’d recommend reading through the archives at his blog Squawking Baseball and subscribing to his feed. He provides a unique take on all things professional baseball.

Patrick DiCaprio has been playing fantasy baseball since the 1980’s, and has won multiple championships in high stakes leagues. He is an associate editor with Fanball, and wrote a weekly column for THT Fantasy Focus. This year he will write a weekly column for RotoTimes, and co-host a fantasy baseball radio show on Sundays.

1. How important is defense to pitcher evaluation?

Defense is an underrated aspect of pitcher analysis in the general fantasy community. A good case in point is the entire Tampa Bay staff and Scott Kazmir in particular. Virtually all of their pitchers performed worse than one would expect because of elevated hit rates. Tampa Bay had historically bad defense last year by any measure. It should be much better this year with the addition of Bartlett and the possible move of BJ Upton to the OF. So there could be some very good bargains there.

As far as metrics there is no single metric that works. I look at as many as I can without exclusion, since we are still in the infancy of defensive statistical analysis and there is no magic pill. Some that I use are runs above/below average, UZR, and OOZ, which was invented by The Hardball Times and measures the total number of outs made on balls outside of the zone. For pitchers, there are also adjusted ERA metrics like FIP (fielding independent pitching) and expected ERA.

2. What is your draft philosophy? Pay for best on board, or pay for scarcity?

My philosophy is one of flexibility. There is no substitute for coming up with multiple plans and budgets based on what you expect to happen. For example, in my high stakes leagues there is often high inflation and tough position scarcity problems (we have 32 and 33 man rosters in the AL and NL, respectively). So I will prepare plans for depletion of specific positions that are scarce, plans for scenarios where owners are reticent to spend early, plans for owners spending profligately early etc.

The goal oriented approach is OK and is what most people use (draft for value, or draft for specific category targets etc). But against tough competition where other owners have similar goals it is very tough to pull off. I subscribe to the philosophy of Sun-Tzu—the target should be to leave yourself many options, full of potential force to be meted out as circumstances dictate.

3. What is the most critical information the common fantasy manager fails to utilize?

Without question in my mind it is the failure to plan appropriately. There is so much information out there that is tactical in nature; who is a good value, who should be hot or cold, who will become a closer etc. All of this is readily available and much of it is of dubious utility. More importantly, most tough owners or strong competitors know all this already, so it has little profit potential. What needs to be done is to prepare accordingly and to craft as many plans as needed to cover the multiple scenarios that arise, while maintaining flexibility. It is not very easy, and in the leagues I play in many of the owners are skilled, which makes it even tougher.

If I had to pick one type of information that is not utilized sufficiently it is the use of “expected” metrics that translate a player’s statistics into what he should have done based on his underlying performance and skills, as opposed to what he actually did. An example is the use of expected ERA, or the analysis of hit rates and strand rates, which are bedrock staples in the analysis on my site (as well as others).

4. As quantifiable as everything is in fantasy baseball, how much does luck still play a factor?

Luck plays a large role and there is simply nothing that can be done about it. If it weren’t for luck there would be no fantasy baseball, since the weaker owners would simply get killed! But it is easy to ascribe poor results to luck when in fact it is a failure of the owner. As Carl von Clausewitz would say, a failure in war is a failure of policy, and in many ways a failure in fantasy is a failure of policy/planning also. Any one result can be largely luck, but over the long haul it should even out.

In head-to-head leagues one could quite reasonably argue that the winner of the championship is essentially luck; but making the playoffs generally is a matter of skill. Once you get there you roll the dice.

5. What is your best advice to aspiring writers looking for opportunities in this niche?

Learn to write well. Much of what I read is simply duplicative of advice that is readily available and has little value. Trying to develop expertise in a specific area is a good idea. But it really comes down to being able to write well, and that takes some work.

Additionally, don’t be afraid to take risks; this is one of the hallmarks of good analysts, and let’s face it, if you are going to write for a large audience your work is going to be scrutinized. So you have to do the best job you can and not worry about whether people agree with your opinions.

I want to thank Mr. DiCaprio for taking the time to answer these questions for us. His scientific approach to fantasy baseball, and his passion for the game make his blog one of my personal favorites. I’d highly recommend tuning into his radio show on Sunday evenings at 7pm est.