Huston Street: Blown Save Cause for Concern?
Street is in any discussion with the games best relievers. But his fly ball percentage has increased each of the last three seasons:
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
| 39% | 42% | 45% |
Which is responsible for the increase in his HR/9 allowed:
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
| 0.34 | 0.51 | 0.90 |
According to fan graphs, he’s lost some velocity as well; averaging 90.4 MPH on his fastball in 2007, down from his career 91.1 average.
MPH data, and the conclusions that can be gained from it–is still fuzzy, but this observation tells us that there’s a strong correlation between a pitchers MPH and success.
Street is still only months back from an elbow injury that almost lead to TJ surgery; another “issue” worth noting.
PECOTA awards Street with the lowest projected ERA in baseball (2.51) and he’s still on the right side of the age curve; which bode well for sustained health, and increased productivity. He also boasts an eye popping (4.0) career strike out to walk ratio.
What do you think of Huston Street? He’s being drafted 132 overall, and the popular opinion seems to be–he’s one of the best MR values this season. PECOTA ranks him 20th overall as a $27.69 value in 2008.
Street’s ceiling has definitely come down because of his injuries, but he’s still very effective. I don’t read much into one blown save; he still struck out two of the hitters he faced. It’s still Spring Training, really. Papelbon didn’t exactly look good in that game, either. A big part of that low projected ERA is probably due to McAfee Coliseum. Who’s the next-highest ERA among closers?
I was a bit surprised by PECOTA’s ranking for Street–20th?? I got him in the 10th round, or right around ADP, so theoretically that’s good value, but does anyone really think he’ll be the 20th highest producer? Seems like a reach for a closer, esp. one with his injury history.