One of my favorite blogs: Statistically Speaking, honors the most average batters from ‘81-’07, with the cleverly named Oddibe Awards.
Some of the most recent:
| Year | Batter | Line |
| 2003 | Orlando Hudson | .268/.328/.395 |
| 2004 | Brian Schneider | .257/.325/.399 |
| 2005 | Vinny Castilla | .253/.319/.403 |
| 2006 | Randy Winn | .262/.324/.396 |
| 2007 | Ronny Paulino | .263/.314/.389 |
–> The rest of the list is here.
Over at Recondite Baseball; Jay lists 20 batters who have taken the most, and the fewest pitches per plate appearance since 2000.
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Most Pitches/Plate Appearance:
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Fewest Pitches/Plate Appearance:
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See the rest of the list here.
I was browsing through Roto Junkies’ famous message board: The Bullpen this evening; reading about Joey Votto, a player I recently traded for in my 14 team dynasty league. I don’t know if I’m a lone on this one, but I like to read analysis about a player I acquired, as a way to re assure myself I’ve made a good decision.
Anyway, I came across this stimulating comment by one of the posters:
“This is completely unsubstantiated by any statistical support, but I’ve noticed recently, that it seems when hitters come up and struggle a little bit, they tend to focus on their running game to kind of make up for the fact that they are struggling at the plate, so their SB totals seem a bit high.
I’ve noticed this during the season as well. It seems players who have the ability to steal bases, throw the ball hard, and cover a lot of ground defensively, will over compensate, and flash their tools more often–when they are struggling with the bat.
Whether the theory is legitimate or not, I think it brings up an interesting idea: What else can typical human behavior tell us about ballplayers? How can we utilize that information in our leagues?
Street is in any discussion with the games best relievers. But his fly ball percentage has increased each of the last three seasons:
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
| 39% | 42% | 45% |
Which is responsible for the increase in his HR/9 allowed:
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
| 0.34 | 0.51 | 0.90 |
According to fan graphs, he’s lost some velocity as well; averaging 90.4 MPH on his fastball in 2007, down from his career 91.1 average.
MPH data, and the conclusions that can be gained from it–is still fuzzy, but this observation tells us that there’s a strong correlation between a pitchers MPH and success.
Street is still only months back from an elbow injury that almost lead to TJ surgery; another “issue” worth noting.
PECOTA awards Street with the lowest projected ERA in baseball (2.51) and he’s still on the right side of the age curve; which bode well for sustained health, and increased productivity. He also boasts an eye popping (4.0) career strike out to walk ratio.
What do you think of Huston Street? He’s being drafted 132 overall, and the popular opinion seems to be–he’s one of the best MR values this season. PECOTA ranks him 20th overall as a $27.69 value in 2008.
It only took Zimmerman 269 MiLB PAs to earn a Sept. call up, after being lured away from UV with a $2.9M signing bonus in 2005.
Given his outstanding college resume, and his dominance in the Eastern League (a league known for its difficulty against batters) expectations were very high on the 20 year old prospective star.
In his ‘06 rookie season, Zimmerman didn’t disappoint. He had an outstanding rookie campaign with both the bat, and glove, falling just short of Hanley Ramirez for NL ROY:
| PA | Line | OPS+ | UZR | AGE |
| 682 | .287/.351/.471 | 114 | +3 | 21 |
Things weren’t all Cake & Ice Cream in 2007, though; the year he was suppose to start making pitchers look silly. He excelled with the glove; improving his defense by 19 runs (UZR +22), but took a surprising step backwards with the bat (266/.330/458) in 722 PA.
It probably had more to do with the decrease in line drives he hit, from 21% to 16%, because the rest of his batted ball data, and rate stats were in line with his career norms. There was only a -.008 difference from his real OPS, to his predicted OPS, so there isn’t any indication he was un lucky.
Why did he hit 5% less line drives in 2007? This is where a good scouting report would come in handy (maybe Saber-Scouting, the fine new scouting/sabermetric blog could help us out?)
2008 Outlook:
PECOTA projects his best season yet (.292/.357/.492) with an impressive 58% improve rate.
He’s on the right side of the age curve, and is likely to increase his skills for the next 2-3 seasons. His LD% should creep closer back to his rookie levels, but it’s hard to say for sure. His new ballpark is expected to bode well for HR hitters as well.
Fantasy Outlook:
PECOTA projects: 96R/.292/24/98RBI/8, which makes him a $21.59 value (45th overall) He’s being drafted 88.38 overall according to Kelly’s ADP report.
He’s somebody I was targeting in my dynasty league, but lost him by 3 picks. Either way he figures to be a lot more expensive in 2009.
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I wrote a guest article published at MLB Trade Rumors a few days ago. If you’re interested, here’s the link.
Your chances of winning the lotto are probably better; but if nothing else, its a great idea. Here are the rules:
The National Post is reporting that B.J. Ryan felt sore after his relief appearance on Monday:
“…medical staff found no cause for alarm when they checked him out yesterday morning, a team spokesman said.
Any discomfort (even mild) is not good news for a pitcher trying to fully rehab from reconstructive elbow surgery in just 10 months.
Back in February, Chris Neault (a licensed physical therapist), wrote a highly informative piece about B.J. Ryan and his 2008 outlook:
“…Ryan possesses quite an unorthodox approach to the plate, with a lot of violent whipping motions at his elbow and shoulder.” He went on to say: “These mechanics ultimately led him to [Tommy John] surgery.”
If Jeremy Accardo is available in your league, stash him. He’s probably the most valuable MR without a CL job–which will change if Ryan can’t remain healthy. PECOTA likes Accardo projecting a K/9 of 8.0, and a 3.70 era.
UPDATE: It’s very likely B.J. Ryan will start the season on the DL. With no date set for pitching activities to resume again.
Voros McCracken has consulted with the Boston Red Sox front office, and won a World Series during his time with the team. He revolutionized pitcher evaluation methodology by discovering Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS) in 1999. Currently he is writing columns for the fine Baseball Digest Daily.
Q. Can you share three things about yourself people probably don’t know?
A. One, I was ejected from an Intramural basketball game back in 1989 by current Ohio State basketball coach Thad Matta (he was the ref and I directed a colorful vocabulary word at him that he didn’t appreciate). Two, I was a die-hard Cubs fan early in my life and, for reasons I don’t really understand, I no longer am one. Three, I have been diagnosed with Bipolar Disorder though I, and others, are somewhat skeptical that this is actually the case.
Q. What was working with the Red Sox front office like?
A. Well to make things clear, I didn’t spend a whole lot of time in Boston so insight into the daily workings of the actual office will have to come from elsewhere. In terms of my work with the Red Sox it was mostly enjoyable but occasionally frustrating. Being able to have the ear of an MLB GM is something most of the people who do what I do aspire to and it was indeed very {searching for a word} exhilarating? On the other hand the money was lousy, and at times I was left without any real idea of what kind of effect I was having on things. When you work on something for five months, deliver the final product and hear little back about it, it can be disheartening.
One of the things that kind of bugged me with the Red Sox was a somewhat implied expectation that I’d come up with something like DIPS on a regular basis. Whether that’s reasonable for someone else or not, I personally just don’t have that in me.
Q. What type of work are you doing these days; any comprehensive metrics on the burner?
A. Not really. I’m planning on talking a little about the work I did on college hitting statistics with the Red Sox. I’m trying to refine my old projection system to have it in time for next year. But for the most part my main focus is going to try and be on a book I’m writing. I’m hoping it will be sort of a David Sedaris meets straight Stat-Geek sort of thing. Everybody is doing annuals so I thought I’d try something a little different. Realistically, selling books is one of the few ways someone can make money doing this sort of stuff. Even if no one buys it, I’ll probably enjoy writing it so it’s win/win either way.
Q. It seems HR Allowed has become a controversial statistic. I’ve read studies that say pitchers have control over the amount of HR’s they allow, and I’ve read studies that claim the opposite. Can you share your opinion about this?
A. I don’t think anyone is really arguing that pitchers have no control over the number of Home Runs they allow. That’s easy enough to disprove. The argument, as I understand it, is whether pitchers can influence Home Runs Allowed as a percentage of Fly Balls Allowed. There are definitely fly ball pitchers out there, so the argument seems to be over whether Home Runs differ relative to fly ball and ground ball percentages. I don’t have the data, nor have I gone through it one way or the other, but everyone involved seems to generally know what they’re doing. I guess I’ll just wait and see like everyone else.
Q. What position–in a batting order–should typically yield the most run producing opportunities? (e.g., R, RBI, etc)
A. I suppose I can do some quick BS stat geekery to give insight. You can run a linear regression for 2006 stats for the individual components (2Bs, HRs, BBs, etc.) and compare them to runs scored for individual players. Then you can use that formula to compare how many runs each spot in the batting order should score (given those components) compared to how many were actually scored. You can do the same for RBIs.
The basic problem with this method is that lineup order position is often contained within individual players stats (fast players tend to hit leadoff more, sluggers tend to hit in the middle of the order). Still it’s the best I can do on short notice. Leadoff hitters only score 4% more than expected (which is almost certainly a side effect of the problem I just mentioned) while driving in 12% less than expected. Number two hitters score 10% more than expected while driving in 6% less. Three hitters score and drive in 2% more than expected, while cleanup scores half a percent more and drive in 4% more than expected.
Given that the two hole gets roughly 18 more plate appearances per season per team than the three hole, there’s an argument to be made that the two hole is at least as good as the three hole.
If that wasn’t the question, I apologize, but I decided to try and answer it anyway. I’m sure other people have done this more in depth.
Q. Has there been any research into barometric pressure? (e.g., Does the climate in Washington contribute to poor batting performance, as much as the stadium? And do pitches break differently or less effectively in different conditions?)
A. The answer to both of the above is clearly “yes” and Adair’s Physics of Baseball talks about it. The real issue is how much these effects really matter. Generally I’ve been of the opinion that stat geeks like myself have tended to give park effects more play than may be warranted. Outside of severe outliers like Coors Field or the Old Griffith Stadium, the extent to which park seems to matter is surprisingly small. Both myself and Tommy Tango have looked at the accuracy of projections with and without adjusting for park and have found very little advantage to be gained via park adjustment, except in extreme cases.
I think this simply is because most plays in baseball are unambiguous. Most doubles are doubles regardless of MLB park. The human mind seems to be able to react to breaking balls that break 0.6 inches as opposed to 0.8. The effects are real, but, if I had to guess, I’d say that they’re smaller than folks think.
Q. Is there a different composition of a team, and different style of play that is required to maximize chances to win in the post-season, as compared to the regular season?
A. As best as I can tell, the best way to win in the playoffs is to go there as often as possible. While there are other team construction strategies that make sense (e.g., dominant front line pitching since the off days allow you to compress your pitching staff), I think there’s limits to how much value you can really get out of that, over and above the value you would get in the regular season. Yes it clearly helps you win more in the post season, but then it clearly helps you win more in the regular season too.
Baseball is a sport where a team with a .650 winning percentage is a team that ranks up there with some of the best. It’s often argued that stat geeks too often fall back on sample size arguments, but here it’s tough to escape. Put the best possible team together you can and take your chances. If you can, you might want to get yourself a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but don’t give away the store to do it.
Q. Can you share your best advice to somebody who might be looking for a professional opportunity with a major league front office?
A. Before even bothering to undertake your plan, make sure you’ve set yourself up financially as MLB teams don’t tend to pay well to folks without numbers on their backs. My route was unusual as they found me, so I’m a little limited in the ability to advise people the other way around. If you’re young (still in school) search for internships while you’re attending college. A lot of people currently in front offices (like Theo Epstein) have gone that route.
If you have the ability, go as far as you humanly can as a player. Being able to say you played regularly in college ball (even lower divisions) can be a plus on your side. If you’re older, your path is more difficult, and to get the best advice from there you’d have to ask someone else. I honestly don’t know.
I’d like to thank Voros for taking the time to answers these questions carefully, and astutely. I’d advise anybody interested in learning more about baseball, and its history; to follow his blog, and baseball columns at baseball digest daily.
Zito’s claim to fame has been his durability; pitching in 223 innings per season throughout his A’s tenure. Zito was a VORP star because of it; ranking amongst the top 15 in VORP 4 out of his 6 full seasons with the A’s.
One thing VORP doesn’t do is neutralize for defense, and that’s where anything good about Zito’s Post Cy Young Award Winning Career ends. Zito had the fortune of pitching in front of some of the best defensive outfields during his last three A’s seasons, which masked his declining peripherals: Poor career strikeout to walk ratio (1.91), and poor career groundball rate (38%).
This bullet, in a recent Olney entry, has to warm the hearts of Giants fans all over America:
• Barry Zito’s fastball is being clocked in the low 80s, as Andrew Baggarly writes, and his ERA is 14.92. And there is this: He has faced 67 batters [this spring] without recording a strikeout.