Exposing Lucky Hitters in 2007 with PrOPS
Posted on February 20th, 2008 by dchase
For those of you reading this via your feed reader, you’re going to have to visit the page to see the graph. It’s an embedded Google Doc.
Yesterday we looked at batters who were unlucky in 2007. Today we look at batters who were lucky in 2007. The higher the “OPS-PrOPS” the more lucky that batter was last season. And the more likely they’re to regress in 2008.
Those are some scary ratios for the top OFers, (.144 for Maggs, .128 for Granderson), but it should probably be said also that these numbers are relative to what they put up, right? So yes, maybe Granderson got a little lucky, but even if he was unlucky this year, he’s still going to put up great numbers.
The question is, how much do these ratios translate to fantasy production dropoff?