B4B

Patrick DiCaprio has been playing fantasy baseball since the 1980’s, and has won multiple championships in high stakes leagues. He is an associate editor with Fanball, and wrote a weekly column for THT Fantasy Focus. This year he will write a weekly column for RotoTimes, and co-host a fantasy baseball radio show on Sundays.

1. How important is defense to pitcher evaluation?

Defense is an underrated aspect of pitcher analysis in the general fantasy community. A good case in point is the entire Tampa Bay staff and Scott Kazmir in particular. Virtually all of their pitchers performed worse than one would expect because of elevated hit rates. Tampa Bay had historically bad defense last year by any measure. It should be much better this year with the addition of Bartlett and the possible move of BJ Upton to the OF. So there could be some very good bargains there.

As far as metrics there is no single metric that works. I look at as many as I can without exclusion, since we are still in the infancy of defensive statistical analysis and there is no magic pill. Some that I use are runs above/below average, UZR, and OOZ, which was invented by The Hardball Times and measures the total number of outs made on balls outside of the zone. For pitchers, there are also adjusted ERA metrics like FIP (fielding independent pitching) and expected ERA.

2. What is your draft philosophy? Pay for best on board, or pay for scarcity?

My philosophy is one of flexibility. There is no substitute for coming up with multiple plans and budgets based on what you expect to happen. For example, in my high stakes leagues there is often high inflation and tough position scarcity problems (we have 32 and 33 man rosters in the AL and NL, respectively). So I will prepare plans for depletion of specific positions that are scarce, plans for scenarios where owners are reticent to spend early, plans for owners spending profligately early etc.

The goal oriented approach is OK and is what most people use (draft for value, or draft for specific category targets etc). But against tough competition where other owners have similar goals it is very tough to pull off. I subscribe to the philosophy of Sun-Tzu—the target should be to leave yourself many options, full of potential force to be meted out as circumstances dictate.

3. What is the most critical information the common fantasy manager fails to utilize?

Without question in my mind it is the failure to plan appropriately. There is so much information out there that is tactical in nature; who is a good value, who should be hot or cold, who will become a closer etc. All of this is readily available and much of it is of dubious utility. More importantly, most tough owners or strong competitors know all this already, so it has little profit potential. What needs to be done is to prepare accordingly and to craft as many plans as needed to cover the multiple scenarios that arise, while maintaining flexibility. It is not very easy, and in the leagues I play in many of the owners are skilled, which makes it even tougher.

If I had to pick one type of information that is not utilized sufficiently it is the use of “expected” metrics that translate a player’s statistics into what he should have done based on his underlying performance and skills, as opposed to what he actually did. An example is the use of expected ERA, or the analysis of hit rates and strand rates, which are bedrock staples in the analysis on my site (as well as others).

4. As quantifiable as everything is in fantasy baseball, how much does luck still play a factor?

Luck plays a large role and there is simply nothing that can be done about it. If it weren’t for luck there would be no fantasy baseball, since the weaker owners would simply get killed! But it is easy to ascribe poor results to luck when in fact it is a failure of the owner. As Carl von Clausewitz would say, a failure in war is a failure of policy, and in many ways a failure in fantasy is a failure of policy/planning also. Any one result can be largely luck, but over the long haul it should even out.

In head-to-head leagues one could quite reasonably argue that the winner of the championship is essentially luck; but making the playoffs generally is a matter of skill. Once you get there you roll the dice.

5. What is your best advice to aspiring writers looking for opportunities in this niche?

Learn to write well. Much of what I read is simply duplicative of advice that is readily available and has little value. Trying to develop expertise in a specific area is a good idea. But it really comes down to being able to write well, and that takes some work.

Additionally, don’t be afraid to take risks; this is one of the hallmarks of good analysts, and let’s face it, if you are going to write for a large audience your work is going to be scrutinized. So you have to do the best job you can and not worry about whether people agree with your opinions.

I want to thank Mr. DiCaprio for taking the time to answer these questions for us. His scientific approach to fantasy baseball, and his passion for the game make his blog one of my personal favorites. I’d highly recommend tuning into his radio show on Sunday evenings at 7pm est.