5 Pitching Statistics you Can’t Afford to Ignore Anymore
How to Evaluate Pitching Statistics:
Most fantasy baseball veterans already use these pitching statistics and apply them “second hand”. But even the most seasoned veteran might find the tables and ranges I’ve included in this article useful.
One thing I’ve noticed when reading through many fantasy baseball articles, is the lack of in depth information about the statistics mentioned. I created this resource to compliment the great information that’s already widely available on the web. Next time, one of your favorite writers mention these metrics, you’ll know what they mean and how to apply them.
These statistics are skill based outcomes. If you start paying more attention to the following numbers, you’ll improve your pitcher evaluation methodology immediately.
1. Strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9)
Out of all pitching stats this one is most stable from year to year. In other words, if a pitcher strikes out 1 batter per inning one season, there’s a good chance it will happen the next: this is great because unlike ERA you have a better understanding of what you’re paying for. A pitcher with a high K/9 is less dependant on luck and defense, and the number directly relates to how deceptive his pitches are. Higher K/9 usually = more effective pitcher.
| K/9 | Quality |
| Lower than 5.0 | Poor |
| Between 5-7.0 | Average |
| Above 7.0 | Good |
| Above 9.0 | Elite |
2. Walks per 9 innings (BB/9)
A low BB/9 signifies outstanding control and usually results in keeping opposing batters off the bases. It is important to keep an eye out for pitchers who are elite in this category to boost your teams WHIP: this simple statistic is often overlooked for K/BB ratio but it carries tremendous value standing on its own.
| BB/9 | Quality |
| Higher than 3.00 | Poor |
| Between 2.50-3.00 | Average |
| Between 2-2.50 | Good |
| Below 2.0 | Elite |
3. Ground Ball Percentage (GB%)
The theory is simple: pitchers who yield higher ground ball rates reduce the chance of giving up HRs. These types of pitchers are also less susceptible to HR prone ballparks. Like BB/9 and K/9, a pitchers ground ball rate is usually stable from year to year. GB pitchers with low walk rates and high strikeout rates are extremely rare commodities. The best pitchers in the game are simultaneously successful in all 3 of these categories. Felix Hernandez has tremendous upside for this very reason.
| GB% | Quality |
| Below 40% | Poor |
| 40-50% | Average |
| 50-55% | Good |
| Above 55% | Elite |
4. Fly Ball Percentage (FB%)
Simply reverse the explanation in #3. In theory you don’t want to own a Fly Ball Pitcher in a ballpark that gives up a lot of home runs. (In later entries we’ll talk more about those ballparks and more importantly how to build a ballpark defensible pitching staff).
| FB% | Quality |
| Above 43% | Poor |
| 35-43% | Average |
| 30-35% | Good |
| Below 30% | Elite |
5. Singles allowed per 9 innings (1B/9)
Singles allowed per 9 innings is a skill based outcome according to a study done by the fine Sabermetricians over at MVN. Their study concludes that pitchers have very little control over fly balls that turn into HR’s (which directly goes against many other fantasy baseball sites teachings who use DIPS to evaluate pitchers). I would highly advise you to read the study here.
After probing for more information the author (Pizza Cutter) had these additional comments:
Indeed, it looks as though 1B/PA is a little more skill based than we thought it might be, although it probably has something to do with the fact that strikeouts and walks per PA are very very skill-based and stable.
1B/9 doesn’t come without question marks, but could prove to be very applicable if proven as a skill based outcome. This would be monstrous for fantasy leagues that use the WHIP category. If you have the inclination Retrosheet offers the data in PBP format and it is downloadable for free.
Closing Comments:
All of these statistics are essential when evaluating a pitchers skill level and if utilized properly can help you find “diamonds in the rough” who are overlooked because of bad luck.
The sites in the table below offer statistics 1-4 on a per player and per league basis in a nice organized interface for free.
| www.FanGraphs.com | MLB Pitchers |
| www.FirstInning.com | Minor League Pitchers |
Baseball HQ was the first proponent that said pitchers do not have control over fly balls that turn into HRs. Please get your facts straight.
I’ve heard people reference Ron Shandler and Baseball HQ when making the argument for HR/FB being a skill based outcome for pitchers. I’m certainly open to editing the article if this is indeed false. Thanks for the feedback.
K/9 and BB/9 are not good metrics to use. You should instead use K/PA and BB/PA. Consider the following two pitchers:
Pitcher A: 200 IP; 200 K; 50 BB; 50 H==K/9=9; K/PA=0.285
Pitcher B: 200 IP; 200 K; 20 BB; 50 H==K/9=9; K/PA=0.299
Pitcher B is the better strikeout pitcher but K/9 doesn’t show that Pitcher A’s rate is inflated because he walks more batters and therefore has more chances to strikeout batters while maintaining the same rate.
It’s comments like yours that I hoped to receive when the idea to start this blog hit me.
I can see how using the PER PA instead of PER 9 can give an even clearer picture of a pitcher’s ability. I wouldn’t say the /9 is wrong, it’s just a more macro view of the same concept.
The only “problem” is having to do the leg work and consolidating that information. If you know of an available resource that already puts that data together please let me/us know.
Wouldn’t Using the K/9 as well as a K/BB ratio Accomplish the Same as a K/PA ratio?
[…] 5 Pitching Statistics you Can’t Afford to Ignore Anymore […]
K/9 and BB/9 are more than acceptable metrics to use. Your metrics are simply another way of viewing the same data. Fantasy fantatics will argue many statisical theories, but the reality is whatever makes the most sense to you is what you should use.
K’s and BB’s per PA is definitely preferable over K’s and BB’s per out (which is what IP is). THT lists those stats that way. In our stats page, when we say K/G or BB/G, the “game” is actually based on the average number of plate appearances per game in the league that year. This is covered in our Glossary.
I’d highly recommend staying away from ratios, such as K/BB or GB/FB. They don’t tell the same story–high strikeout pitchers will get lost with low strikeout pitchers, but they’re different pitchers. Also, a change in K/BB is not the same as a change in K/G or BB/G.
Which brings me to my question: if you have GB%, why use FB%? The only real difference is line drives, which is usually negligible. They’re just the inverse of each other. If you have one number, that’s all you need.
By the way, both Shandler and THT analyzed HR’s per FB and came to the same conclusion several years ago.
Studes,
To answer your question my goal with this article was a combination of explaining skill based statistics and fantasy baseball applicable statistics. Because GB% and FB% are skill based outcomes I thought an explanation (even if it was redundant) was necessary given the context of the article.
My comments about Basebeall HQ (which have since been edited) had a lot to do with the HR/9 component in the LIMA plan. Which, according to the feedback I’ve gotten he must no longer advocate.
[…] In a previous entry I detailed why ERA and WHIP do a poor job at summarizing a pitchers skill level. You want to pay for pitchers who have been successful at: […]