Brock for Broglio

Greener On The Other Side also contributed to yesterdays roundtable with some great advice. I made a mistake by not including their response in yesterdays article. Without further ado…

Making trades is an intricate part of fantasy baseball.  While we all draft teams we love, injuries and down seasons always prompt us to look around the league towards acquiring players we think would improve our teams.  However, there are some common mistakes made by us all that, if avoided, could lead to landing the player(s) you covet.

Mistake #1: Don’t over sell the player you are trying to trade.  By continuously promoting a certain player to an owner he will inevitably ask you “If he’s so good, then why don’t you want him to stay on your team?”  To avoid this problem, try the “beat around the bush” tactic.  If you are trying to trade Pat Burrell, don’t let the owner know that.  Instead of saying “What will you give me for Pat Burrell” or “I’d give you Pat Burrell for,” beat around the bush.  Simply tell the owner that “I have a surplus of power in my outfield and am looking to trade someone.” 

This gives the owner an opportunity to choose Burrell himself, making it far more likely that a deal gets done and the player you want to move gets moved.  A key to making any trade is not to shove a player in someone’s face, but rather to make them think they got all the players they wanted and not who you wanted to give them.

Mistake #2: Never ask for the player you really want first.  In looking at my leagues standings, I noticed a team was first in strikeouts by a large margin.  I looked at their roster and found out why.  Their staff included Peavy, Harang, Lincecum, Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez.  They also had Edinson Volquez, who I wanted.  Oftentimes people go right after the guy they want and then the owner becomes defensive because he doesn’t want to give you what you want.  Remember, he wants you to lose.  Again, in an effort to make the owner feel good about his team and make him choose the player to give you, I said this” “I see you’ve got a ton of strikeout pitchers on your team.  Very Impressive.  I could use some on my team.  I don’t want to be like _____________ (insert your league’s idiot) and ask for your top notch guys like Peavy, Harang or Lincecum, but are there any other pitchers that might be available?”

Now, I’ve complimented his team, told him I’m not like the league’s idiot who always bothers him with ridiculous trade offers, and further mentioned that I don’t want to ask for his best players.  He should take that as a compliment and be willing to think something over. 

His response was “I have guys like Sanchez, Volquez and Garland available.” 

I’ve hit the jackpot when the owner let’s me know that the player I want is available before I’ve let him know that he’s offered me the player I want.

Mistake #3: Don’t tell an owner what categories he needs help in.  The last thing we want to be reminded of his how poorly we are doing in stolen base category.  All that does is make the owner want to jab back at you and tell you how poorly your team is doing in home runs. 

To prevent a bad introduction to our conversation and the owner from wanting to further discuss his team, I stud his team’s standing and see what is weaker: his hitting or pitching.

By determining which is weaker, I know that eventually I want to be offering help in those areas, as opposed to his team’s areas of strength. 

Let’s say the owner is ranked highly in all hitting categories but is in the bottom 3 in ERA, WHIP and S.  That makes me believe that his current weakness is pitching.

I say “Tell me about your pitching staff.”  His response in analyzing his own team should be something along the lines of “I’m pretty solid in K’s and wins but I’m not doing so well in the ratio categories.  My closers are Cordero and Jones so I’ve been lacking in the saves department.”

Again, I’ve made him be the one to tell me his weakness.  Now, without seeming like the one who brought it up, I can reply by saying “do you think adding a 3rd closer would help you out?” 

He’s already told me that he could use help in those areas, so by letting him be the bearer of bad news, I’m off the hook and I can proceed in making offers of players that I know he needs and wants.

Having trouble pulling off that blockbuster trade? Need some tips on how to approach other owners about a player you’re interested in? If so — you’ll love this weeks fantasy roundtable. 

Adam Ronis - Newsday.com

1. Don’t insult the intelligence of another owner. Obviously, some owners are more savvy and experienced than others, but if you try to belittle their knowledge, it creates a negative conversation.

2. A lot of times owners fail to look at what the other team needs and solely looks at what they need to improve on. There’s someone on the other side that needs to improve as well. For example, if you’re trying to improve your pitching and offer Mark Teixeira for Brandon Webb, it seems like a fair deal. But if the trade partner is set at 1B, CI and U, how does this help his team? He might be looking for a second baseman. Many owners just throw out trade offers. If you’re in a competitive league, you need to dig deeper into the stats.

3. An owner will often evaluate a deal and shy from pulling the trigger if they feel they’re not the winner of the deal. The goal is not to rip someone off - it would be nice but won’t happen often. If it improves your team and it’s the best deal you can get done to improve your team with the players you are willing to deal, do it. The other owner might come out looking better, but it’s all about how it helps your team. You may have a ton of power and lack speed and trade a power hitter for a speed guy and it looks lopsided. But that addition of stolen bases you really needed can push you up the standings faster than holding on to the power hitter when you lead the next guy by 20 home runs.

Tim Dierkes - RotoAuthority

1.  Don’t ignore the other team’s needs when finding your trading partner.  If you need starting pitching, you can’t just offer up Ryan Braun for Jake Peavy.  Instead I would start by finding a team that is running away with the ERA category, so much that they could sacrifice plenty.  Then identify the categories they’re lacking and see if you can help.  Nothing is more frustrating to me than getting an offer that clearly shows the other owner didn’t consider my needs.  If I have five great outfielders, don’t offer me a sixth.

2.  Don’t try to talk up the players you’re trying to trade.  Way too transparent.  Obviously the other owner is going to look at the numbers before pulling the trigger. If you try to hype up the player you’re offering it’s a dead giveaway that you think he’s a fluke in some way.  Let the stats do the talking and don’t try to “educate” the other owner on why your offer is great.

3.  Don’t bring the owner some wacky 10-player proposal.  Ugh.  It’s more of a personal preference, but I hate seeing trades like this (especially in April).  No serious player trades his three best players for someone else’s three best players.  Anything beyond a 2-for-2 trade is tough to evaluate and probably not necessary.

Rob Reed - Baseball Geeks

1. First and foremost (and my biggest pet peeves) are basic, one-sided trade offers where the owner making the offer has clearly paid no attention to my team needs and is just trying to pull one over on me.  A fair trade offer that considers the needs of the team you are trying to trade with makes it much more likely that you will be heard.  I either ignore such requests, or I throw out an equally bad (or worse) offer in return.  We can call this fantasy mutual masturbation gone bad.

2. This leads to a second mistake.  I know of a number of players who throw out fully one-sided deals with the thought that this will instigate negotiation.  Fantasy trading should never be like slick business dealing.  Let the other owner know where you think his weaknesses lie, support your claim in your offer, and request a player who fills one of your holes but who will not create a gap in the other fantasy player’s line up. 

As an example here, there is a guy in my money league who has Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, but he has terrible closers (let’s focus on Manny Corpas, who just lost the job, and Tony Pena, who is heir apparent if Lyon blows up).  Assume I have Papelbon and Nathan (and two middle tier relievers) and Ryan Garko at first.  I propose a Nathan and Garko for Fielder and Pena deal.

There is a great shot that this deal is made.  I have found my biggest weakness, utilized my biggest strength, and structured this deal so, on paper, it looks slightly more one-sided against me.  The owner sees I am reasonable, and I have just garnered respect.  Even if no deal is made now, I establish a presumption in the mind of the other manager that I play fair.  And, we can negotiate, suggesting Papelbon instead of Nathan or Corpas instead of Pena, or mix and match Howard instead of Fielder.

3. Lastly, I’m a big believer in league integrity.  I have heard on a podcast more than once and read on a few fantasy blogs suggesting that I take advantage of new players to the league who may not understand the game.  For me, this is the fantasy equivalent of stealing a base when you have a 12 run lead.  Purely bush league and a mistake in principle.

Commish - Fantasy Baseball Geeks

I will respond with concepts on this rather than specifics.  This becomes more of a sales technique than anything to do with any baseball or fantasy knowledge.

1. Do not make the other owner think you are very interested in making any trades.  Act as if you are satisfied with your roster and have empathy for their injuries or struggling players.  You should begin the dialogue, but allow them to feel as though they are in control.  You are taking their temperature to see how much roto-pain they are in.  The true test of an experienced owner and fantasy salesman is the ability to actually make the other owner make the official offer to you.  In their mind they are still in control and are doing what is necessary to improve.  This is part psychology and partly downright manipulative, but if done correctly will reap tremendous buy-low rewards.  This takes practice to prefect, so get to work.

2. Do not email, offer, or reject a trade while intoxicated.  You run the risk of doing something stupid and impaired judgement can lead to fantasy mistakes.  This happens all the time and could ruin your season and friendships in the process - wait until morning to handle things rationally.

3. Do not ever under any circumstances let other owners know you are involved in discussions with a particular owner.  This can lead to someone else vulturing in to make a better deal or to drive up the value on you.  Even best friends will stab you in the back to acquire B.J. Upton on the cheap. 

Lastly and completely off topic - don’t trade just to trade.  In other words don’t be the guy that turns over his entire roster by seasons end.  It might be fun to wheel and deal, but it is a recipe for failure to completely de-construct a roster. 

Patrick DiCaprio - Fantasy Baseball Generals

1. Thinking only about your team and needs. This should be obvious but isn’t. As I recently discussed on my website, I was approached for one of my closers (Gregg and Wagner) with the proviso “I won’t trade players x and y.” This left waiver wire type pitchers that he was hoping to deal. Why I would trade a closer for these guys was left unanswered.

2. The league wide email solicitation. This is a sure sign of a lazy owner. The others have no obligation to respond so why would they?

3. Not realizing that most trades are marginal. Most trades end up providing little gain or cost in reality. So don’t be a jerk about a trade that is marginal anyway, be nice and you may end up getting a bigger fish down the line.

Thanks to the participants for allowing me to ask this weeks question, and host.

Most of my articles have targeted industry professionals, and as a result, the subscriber base *here* is rich with knowledgeable baseball enthusiasts - whose opinions have as much merit (if not more) than my own.

Fantasy Baseball Questions:

Send me your fantasy baseball questions: b4bcontest@gmail.com and the best question of the week/month will be posted to the main page, where B4B readers (and myself) can chime in, and offer a response to your question in the commentary.

I went out and saw 21 this evening; not a bad movie by any means. My opinion about this movie is irrelevant, though. I bring this up to share something interesting I learned about the main character the story was based on: Jeffrey Ma.

He’s the guy who founded ProTrade (the sports stock market)

Some of the articles published here - have been referenced by ProTrade. So I’m going to assume some of the subscribers/readers here are account holders there.

Did you know the creator of ProTrade was a card counting/mathematical genius? Given the quality/functionality of that site and service, It doesn’t surprise me one bit.

Lets run down yesterday’s (April 12th) MiLB box scores.

Batters:

Pitchers:

• Sean Gallagher was a very underrated pitching prospect coming into this season; he’s one of the youngest prospects in AAA, and dominating thus far: 5 walks, and 25 strikeouts, in 23.1 innings pitched. I’d put him in the same class as the Gallardo’s and Lincecums’ of 07.

Lets run down yesterday’s (April 17th) MiLB box scores.

Batters:

Pitchers:

I’m sure you’re tired of hearing about exercising patience with your players. You want to know when their performance starts to mean something. Pizza Cutter @ Statistically Speaking, wanted to the know the same thing. He crunched the numbers, and here’s what he found:

These are the PA levels–at which, the players’ performance–can tell us about their skill going forward:

• 50 PA - swing percentage
• 100 PA - contact rate
• 150 PA - K rate, line drive rate, pitches/PA
• 200 PA - BB rate, grounder rate, GB/FB ratio
• 250 PA - flyball rate
• 300 PA - HR rate, HR/FB
• 350 PA - sensitivity
• 400 PA - none
• 450 PA -none
• 500 PA - OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B rate, popup rate
• 550 PA - ISO
• 600 PA - none
• 650 PA - none

1. So after 100 PA (roughly a month, if a player is starting nearly everyday), I can tell you about how much a batter likes to swing and how good he is at making contact.
2. At 150 PA I can tell you if [the batter] likes to hit line drives (and line drives are good…)
3. At 150 PA, I can also start telling whether [the batter] likes to work the count and whether he’s a strikeout king. 
4. By 250 PA, I can tell a lot about his walking tendencies and what he’s going to be a ground ball hitter or a flyball hitter. 
5. At 300 PA, I finally find out whether or not the player likes to hit the ball out of the park every once in a while. 
6. Finally, a lot of the usual 1-number stats (OBP, SLG, OPS) don’t stablize until 500 PA, as well as knowing whether you’re a singles hitter.

I received this email/question from Mr. Krake:

“So I’ve always had problems maximizing my catcher position. I never know when a catcher is getting a day off so I can plug in another catcher and make sure I get all my at bats in. In all my leagues where we start only 1 catcher, I usually have a second catcher on my bench so that if I notice day of that the catcher isn’t starting, I can swap him out, but that doesn’t always happen. Is there a place to go or a strategy for finding out in advance if a given catcher is starting or not?

I didn’t really have a good answer for Glenn, maybe you can help him out?

Lets run down yesterday’s (April 8th) MiLB box scores.

Batters:

Pitchers:

It’s widely accepted throughout most talent-evaluating circles that a pitchers’ “frame” (usually referring to his height and weight) is a good indication of how well the pitcher will develop, and remain healthy.

The conventional thought is pretty simple: The bigger the body, the more workload the pitcher is likely to sustain; and the better the chance the pitcher overcomes the injury nexus, and materializes into an affective major leaguer.

I was reading through John Sickel’s fantastic minor league blog, and came across this nugget about Shaun Marcum:

“One thing that stands out for Marcum is his athleticism as a former college shortstop. Athleticism is something that’s often underrated when discussing pitchers, but it’s a critical factor in development. Marcum may be “undersized” classically as a shorter right-hander, but his athletic ability makes that a lot less important, in my view, and should help him stay healthy and reach his ultimate peak.

Next time somebody tries to down play Tim Lincecum’s potential–citing his small frame–challenge them by mentioning his raw athleticism.

Sickels on Lincecum’s athleticism:

“Some people worry that he’s not a huge guy, being just 5-11 and 170 pounds officially. Personally I don’t really care about that. I’m more impressed by the fact that he’s incredibly athletic. I’ve always felt the whole short right-hander thing was overemphasized by some people, and in the case of guys like Pedro Martinez or Greg Maddux or Roy Oswalt, the premium athleticism and wiry strength is much more important than the lack of height.